In most cases, the wobbles average themselves out and cancel out. Prayers go out to my brothers and sisters in East Texas and Western Louisiana. Moved here a couple years after Ike so not sure how to gauge it. With all that said, I expect confidence in our forecasts to increase steadily over the next 24 hours. I don’t think we see a stronger and farther northeast Laura track based on the duration of possible interaction with Cuba. This would be a good scenario for us. Any way to find out what might happen in The Woodlands?

They’re gonna need it. There is also the background complication that we are living through a pandemic, and we offered some suggestions on that earlier this summer with regard to evacuations. Completely second your sentiment on East Texas and Louisiana. One additional item to note is that the UKMET and ECMWF disagree significantly on how strong Marco will be tomorrow morning. In terms of intensity, you would expect the National Hurricane Center forecast for sustained to be accurate to within about 20 mph, plus or minus. Now, tomorrow morning at latest. Evacuating to where we usually would go isn’t an option during a pandemic. (Weathernerds.org). https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2013/09/12/restoring-power-what-houston-learned-from-ike/, http://hurricane.egr.uh.edu/sites/hurricane.egr.uh.edu/files/files/2009/wei.pdf, https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/projects/ike08/HurricaneWorkshop09.pdf (page 8). #Laura pic.twitter.com/15wgIOTP4x, — Steve Bowen (@SteveBowenWx) August 26, 2020. Thanks a bunch for the info. My thoughts are definitely with the good folks in the Golden Triangle and Lake Charles area. Thanks. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Thank you for your hard work and regular updates. We are currently out of the area. In contrast, the HRWF and HMON models bring Laura to major hurricane strength by 60 hours. They were both sent by God to keep us safe! The farther SW Laura goes, the more time it will have over the Gulf of Mexico to strengthen, and the stronger it will likely end up being. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that resulted in accurate hurricane forecasting. Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Hurricanes do tend to wobble sometimes.

We’ll all have to watch the wobbles – look forward to morning and mid-day updates. That’s mighty petty for what it sounds like her family is going through. Our central problem when looking at model guidance (especially this afternoon it seems) is that they depict a wide range of possible outcomes for Laura and at face-value, it can seem hard to figure out which solutions are more or less likely to verify. I read it every day! I would say don’t even consider it. Are there any remarkable similarities at this point? They will have a good understanding of requirements and they may not match your expectations…as in, it might feel good for you to send clothes, but what people living there really need is a flatbed truck covered in round hay bales so their stock survive the winter, or money to pay for funeral expenses. For this post, we will discuss the forecast for Marco, briefly, and Laura. I was hoping I would hear from someone who lives down on Bolivar or knew or talked with others who lived down there. On the bright side we are thankful Marco comes nowhere near Houston since my dear Fulgencio has some bad memories of that name. Flooding is a different story. Make sure you have cash in case places only take cash electric cash registers). A reminder that the ECMWF is really good at track: Not so good with intensity: 3 likes Top. Thank you for making this as concise and clear as possible. Cannot thank you and your colleague enough. This seminar reviewed recent advances in our understanding of the predictability at these time scales. Yep. Might also be true in the Gulf, but because the Gulf is shallow, it’s also warmer at all levels. While the Houston area gets a lot of air time because we’re the 4th largest city in the country, the folks in Beaumont, Port Arthur, and Lake Charles are sometimes overlooked. Laura Ferranti (ECMWF) Towards process-based narratives for seasonal climate predictions Johanna Baehr (Institute of Oceanography, CEN, Uni Hamburg) Thursday 5 September 2019. Channelview doesn’t typically flood beyond street flooding, but it may be tough getting around if you’re not familiar with the neighborhoods. Thank you guys again..

During Ike we lost power but the temperature stayed low enough that we weren’t miserable. A battery for your phone is handy.

More than two decades ago, seasonal forecasting started as a pilot project at ECMWF. Information Quality