A storm surge up to 12.4 feet in southwest Louisiana, with waves as high as 20 feet, joined with water backing up along rivers to inundate 1.6 million acres of land. Hilarious! Update (noon EDT Wednesday): Cristobal drifted inland just west of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, at around 1330Z (9:30 am EDT) Wednesday.
(Weather Bell) The global models seem to be less bullish on hurricane development as well, as a lot of the ensembles are now predicting a tropical storm, … Tropical storms are not uncommon in the Gulf of Mexico in June; on average, there’s about one every other year. Tropical Storm Cristobal was spinning in the Bay of Campeche at midday Tuesday. The full moon of June 5 may add to tidal impacts, depending on the timing and location of any approach. Bob Henson is a meteorologist and writer at weather.com, where he co-produces the Category 6 news site at Weather Underground. More info: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB pic.twitter.com/dtKUG4Ouni. (tropicaltidbits.com). “There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle,” the National Hurricane Center wrote Wednesday morning. SSTs are above average throughout the Gulf of Mexico. Especially if it strengthens in place, Cristobal will help keep southerly flow pushing inland and upslope across these areas. We are both a research institute and a 24/7 operational service, producing global numerical weather predictions and other data for our Member and Co-operating States and the broader community. (Weather Bell). The time frame to watch would be beginning later on Saturday and continuing into the start of next week. There are multiple wild cards with the track and intensity forecast for Cristobal, leading to below average confidence in the system’s ultimate strength, track and impacts. According to the Euro the system will drift to the West on Thursday and start to strengthen into a decent tropical storm with more watches and warnings being issued to include portions of the Texas coast. The bay’s concave geography will help support Cristobal’s cyclonic surface circulation. Once this low enters the Gulf and taps into the warm waters it should gradually begin to strengthen and develop tropical characteristics. Understanding of the CAG has grown in recent years, and this helped forecasters anticipate the potential development of Amanda and Cristobal several days in advance (see our post from last Friday, May 29). The European Medium Range Forecast Model is considered one of the premiere global forecasting model for the mid-latitudes. The … No other hurricane since Audrey has caused so many deaths in a U.S. state or territory except for Katrina in 2005 and Maria in 2017. Anyway, the big picture story with Cristobal remains the same: It’s going to wobble around the Southern Gulf of Mexico for the next three or four days. The ongoing coronavirus pandemic is likely to complicate storm preparation and response efforts, which may require people to think about and get ready for storm impacts earlier than they may have in past years. Now, Cristobal appears to be becoming the more dominant feature of the two.